Episode 1 Sources

Sources for Episode 1: The Birth of Ukraine

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Chapter 1. Buildup

Ukrainian People’s Republic

Formation

Ukrainian Wikipedia - via Wayback Machine:

“Ukrainian Central Council to the Ukrainian people, in Ukraine and abroad” https://web.archive.org/web/20210826113658/https://uk.wikisource.org/wiki/%D0%9F%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%88%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D0%A3%D0%BD%D1%96%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BB_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%97_%D0%A6%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%97_%D0%A0%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8

Russian Recognition

Institute of History of Ukraine:

“TEMPORARY INSTRUCTIONS TO THE GENERAL SECRETARIAT (1917)”

http://resource.history.org.ua/cgi-bin/eiu/history.exe?Z21ID=&I21DBN=EIU&P21DBN=EIU&S21STN=1&S21REF=10&S21FMT=eiu_all&C21COM=S&S21CNR=20&S21P01=0&S21P02=0&S21P03=TRN=&S21COLORTERMS=0&S21STR=Tymchasova_instruktsiia_1917

Declaration of Independence

Soviet History:

“Ukrainian Declaration of Independence”

https://soviethistory.msu.edu/1954-2/the-gift-of-crimea/the-gift-of-crimea-texts/ukrainian-declaration-of-independence/

Union with West Ukraine

Central State Archives of Higher Authorities and Administration of Ukraine - via Wikimedia:

“Універсал Злуки”

https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%D0%A3%D0%BD%D1%96%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BB_%D0%97%D0%BB%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B8.jpg

West Ukrainian Territory

Wikimedia - by Wikimedia user Spiridon Ion Cepleanu:

“West Ukraine 1918”

https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:West-Ukraine_1918.jpg

Licence: CC-BY-SA 3.0

The War in 1919

Archive.org:

“Ukraine : a history by Orest Subtelny”

https://archive.org/details/ukrainehistory00subt_0/page/358/mode/2up

Editor’s Note: Ukrainian Proto-States and Notes

Ukrainian Wikipedia:

“Українська революція (1917—1921) - Державні утворення, військові формування на території України у 1917—1921 роках”

(translates as “Ukrainian Revolution (1917-1921) - State formations, military formations in Ukraine in 1917-1921”)

https://uk.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%B0_%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8E%D1%86%D1%96%D1%8F_(1917%E2%80%941921)#%D0%94%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B6%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%BD%D1%96_%D1%83%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F,%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%B9%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%96%D1%84%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BC%D1%83%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F_%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%96%D1%97_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D0%B8_%D1%83_1917%E2%80%941921_%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%85

Notes:

• The Crimean People’s Republic, Kuban People’s Republic, were proclaimed to be autonomous parts of the Russian Republic

  • These republics attempted to unite with the Ukrainian People’s Republic, but were defeated by other factions before doing so, both of these territories ended up joining the Russian Soviet

  • Crimea was transferred to the Ukrainian Soviet in the 1950s, while the Kuban region was one of the few territories claimed as part of Ukraine that didn’t end up in the Ukrainian Soviet in the future

• The Donetsk-Kryvyi Rih Soviet Republic, Tavrida Soviet Socialist Republic, Kuban Soviet Republic and Kuban-Black Sea Soviet Republic were proclaimed to be autonomous parts of the Russian Soviet Republic

  • These republics didn’t attempt to join with the Ukrainian Soviet, but later ended up as part of it after the war, they existed either as wartime proxies or as local projects not supported by the USSR central government

• The Odessan Soviet Socialist Republic, Galician Soviet Socialist Republic and Bessarabian Soviet Socialist Republic were proclaimed to be their own independent Republics

  • These territories seemingly were supposed to be their own Soviet Republics as part of the USSR, but Odessa became part of the Ukrainian Soviet while Galicia and Bessarabia ended up as part of other countries outside the USSR after the war, until they were integrated into the Ukrainian Soviet in the 1930s and 40s

• The “Republic of Gulyai-Pole” was the Black Army territory, also known as “Makhnovia” or the “Free Territory”

  • Makhnovia held alliances with some factions during the war, but didn’t have plans to unite with any of them, its territory ended up as part of Soviet Ukraine

• The other territories were proclaimed with a Ukrainian identity and most had plans to unite with the UPR or WUPR, but were prevented from doing so by the events of the war

There were also areas of what is now far-eastern and southern Russia that had Ukrainian settlers, known to Ukrainians as the Grey and Green Wedges, Ukrainians there briefly tried to form their own Ukrainian Republics before being defeated by the Soviets:

https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/ukraine-russia-land-claims/

Information on these 2 statelets can be found on Ukrainian wikipedia under the titles “Український національний рух на Сірому Клині (1917-1921)” (Ukrainian National Movement on the Gray Wedge (1917-1921) and the section of the “Зелений Клин” (Green Wedge) article titled “Керівники Зеленої України” (Green Wedge - Leaders of Green Ukraine):

https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%86%D1%96%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%80%D1%83%D1%85_%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D0%A1%D1%96%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BC%D1%83_%D0%9A%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%96_(1917-1921)

https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%97%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D0%9A%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BD#%D0%9A%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%96%D0%B2%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B8_%D0%97%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%97_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D0%B8

Soviet alliance with Germany

Britannica:

“German-Soviet-Nonaggression-Pact”

https://www.britannica.com/event/German-Soviet-Nonaggression-Pact

(specific sections)

https://www.britannica.com/event/German-Soviet-Nonaggression-Pact#:~:text=The%20Soviet%20Union%20had,a%20change%20of%20policy.

https://www.britannica.com/event/German-Soviet-Nonaggression-Pact#:~:text=To%20this%20public,the%20two%20countries.

The OUN

Wikipedia:

“Act of restoration of the Ukrainian state”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Act_of_restoration_of_the_Ukrainian_state

(text of declaration)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Act_of_restoration_of_the_Ukrainian_state#:~:text=The%20Act%20of%20Proclamation,GLORY%20TO%20UKRAINE!

(image of declaration)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:%D0%90%D0%BA%D1%82_%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%97_%D0%94%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B6%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B8_(%D0%B7_%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%84%D0%BE%D0%BC_%D0%AF%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0_%D0%A1%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%86%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%B0).jpg

CIA Reading Room:

“Code Name PBCRUET”

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/AERODYNAMIC%20%20%20VOL.%201_0004.pdf

“Cold War Allies: The Origins of CIA’s Relationship with Ukrainian Nationalists”

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/STUDIES%20IN%20INTELLIGENCE%20NAZI%20-%20RELATED%20ARTICLES_0015.pdf

Wikimedia - uploaded by Wikimedia user “Sofosbjörn”:

“Ukrayins’ka Povstans’ka Armiya (poster)”

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukrayins%27ka_Povstans%27ka_Armiya_(poster).jpg

Licence: CC-BY-SA 4.0

Indigenisation and Russification

English Wikipedia:

“Korenizatsiia - Against Great-Russian chauvinism”

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korenizatsiia#Against_Great-Russian_chauvinism

(specific section)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korenizatsiia#Against_Great-Russian_chauvinism:~:text=Within%20the%20(minority,of%20Nationalities.

Russian Wikipedia:

“Indigenization - Termination of indigenization”

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B7%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F#%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%89%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5_%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B7%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%B8

(specific section)

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B7%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F#%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%89%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5_%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B7%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%B8:~:text=%D0%92%201937%E2%80%941938,%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B0%20%D1%81%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B5%20%D1%81%D1%83%D1%89%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5.

The Plans of Meshkov

LB:ua:

“Crimea should be Ukrainian, but without bloodshed.” How Ukraine preserved the peninsula 25 years ago”

https://lb.ua/news/2020/07/16/461879_krim_maie_buti_ukrainskim_ale_bez.html

(relevant sections)

https://lb.ua/news/2020/07/16/461879_krim_maie_buti_ukrainskim_ale_bez.html#:~:text=%D0%A3%20%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BC%D1%96%20%D0%9C%D1%94%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%20%E2%80%93%20%D0%B7%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F%20%D0%B7%20%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%96%D1%94%D1%8E%2C%20%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F%20%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%97%20%D0%B7%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B8%20%D1%96%20%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE%20%D1%87%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%2C%20%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F%20%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BC%D1%87%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BC%20%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%96%D0%B9%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B4%D1%8F%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%B0.

https://lb.ua/news/2020/07/16/461879_krim_maie_buti_ukrainskim_ale_bez.html#:~:text=%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%20%D0%9C%D1%94%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2%20%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B2%D1%81%D1%8F%20%D0%B2%20%D0%B1%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%BC%D1%83%20%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%96%20%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%20%D0%B2%20%D1%96%D0%B7%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8F%D1%86%D1%96%D1%97%2C%20%D1%8F%20%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%B2%20%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B7%20%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%20%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%86%D1%96%D1%8E%20%E2%80%93%20%D1%85%D0%BE%D1%87%20%D1%8F%D0%BA%D1%89%D0%BE%20%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8%20%D0%B2%20%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8C%D0%BE%D1%85%20%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%96%D1%88%D0%BD%D1%96%D1%85%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%96%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BA%D1%96%D0%B2%2C%20%D1%82%D0%BE%20%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B8%20%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B6%D1%83%D1%82%D1%8C%2C%20%D1%89%D0%BE%20%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%20%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B8%20%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B8%20%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4.%20%D0%9E%D1%85%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0%20%D0%9C%D1%94%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%20%D0%B1%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B0%20%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%B7%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%94%D0%BD%D0%B0%2C%20%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BC%20%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%BD%20%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D1%83%20%D0%9C%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B2%D1%83

Ukraine’s Modern Divisions

The Washington Post - via Wayback Machine:

“This one map helps explain Ukraine’s protests”

https://web.archive.org/web/20220224212641/http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/12/09/this-one-map-helps-explain-ukraines-protests/

(specific sections)

https://web.archive.org/web/20220224212641/http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/12/09/this-one-map-helps-explain-ukraines-protests/#:~:text=Ukraine%27s%20politics%20have%20long%20been%20divided%20into%20two%20major%20factions%20by%20the%20country%27s%20demographics.%20What%27s%20happening%20right%20now%20is%20in%20many%20ways%20a%20product%20of%20that%20division%2C%20which%20has%20never%20really%20been%20reconciled.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220224212641/http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/12/09/this-one-map-helps-explain-ukraines-protests/#:~:text=Roughly%20speaking%2C%20about%20four%20out%20of%20every%20six%20people%20in%20Ukraine%20are%20ethnic%20Ukrainian%20and%20speak%20the%20Ukrainian%20language.%20Another%20one%20in%20six%20is%20ethnic%20Russian%20and%20speaks%20Russian.%20The%20last%20one%2Din%2Dsix%20is%20ethnic%20Ukrainian%20but%20speaks%20Russian.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220224212641/http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/12/09/this-one-map-helps-explain-ukraines-protests/#:~:text=Since%20it%20declared,the%20other%20candidate.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220224212641/http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/12/09/this-one-map-helps-explain-ukraines-protests/#:~:text=Ukraine%27s%20ethno%2Dlingistic,rolled%20into%20one.

Wikimedia - by Wikimedia user “Vasyl` Babych”:

“The second round of 2010 by districts” (Ukrainian Election Results)

https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%D0%94%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80_2010_%D0%BF%D0%BE_%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%85-en.png#mw-jump-to-license

Licence: CC-BY 3.0

OSCE:

“Yanukovych Wins Ukraine’s Presidential Election”

https://www.oscepa.org/en/news-a-media/press-releases/press-2010/yanukovych-wins-ukraines-presidential-election

(specific section)

https://www.oscepa.org/en/news-a-media/press-releases/press-2010/yanukovych-wins-ukraines-presidential-election#:~:text=Yanukovych%2C%2059%2C%20took%2048.68%20percent%20over%2045.73%20percent%20for%20Prime%20Minister%20Yulia%20Timoshenko%2C%20with%2098.97%20percent%20of%20the%20ballots%20counted%2C%20according%20to%20the%20Central%20Electoral%20Commission%27s%20Web%20Site.

Yanukovytch’s Ambitions

Kyiv Post - via Wayback Machine:

“Yanukovych: Ukraine will remain a neutral state”

https://web.archive.org/web/20100121145322/http://www.kyivpost.com/news/politics/detail/56539

UNIAN:

“Yanukovych imagines how he signs law on Russian language”

https://www.unian.info/politics/261616-yanukovych-imagines-how-he-signs-law-on-russian-language.html

Kyiv Post:

“Yanukovych signs language bill into law”

https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/language-bill/yanukovych-signs-language-bill-into-law-311230.html

Bloomberg - via Wayback Machine:

“Yanukovych Drives Ukraine Toward EU as Russia Gas Deal Looms”

https://web.archive.org/web/20150129114112/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-05-25/yanukovych-drives-ukraine-toward-eu-as-russian-gas-deal-looms

Rejection of EU agreement

Russian threats

Reuters (Relevant Stakeholder(s): The Woodbridge Company):

“Putin warns Ukraine over Europe ambitions”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-ukraine-putin-idUSBRE98I0WB20130919

Ukraine’s response

The Guardian (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Scott Trust Limited)

“Ukraine suspends talks on EU trade pact as Putin wins tug of war”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/21/ukraine-suspends-preparations-eu-trade-pact

(specific sections)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/21/ukraine-suspends-preparations-eu-trade-pact#:~:text=Ukraine%20has%20abruptly%20ditched%20its%20plans%20to%20sign%20a%20historic%20pact%20with%20the%20European%20Union%20aimed%20at%20shifting%20the%20country%20out%20of%20the%20Kremlin%27s%20orbit

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/21/ukraine-suspends-preparations-eu-trade-pact#:~:text=The%20decision%20was,bills%2C%20ensuring%20defeat.

Maidan-Self Defence rejects Yanukovych-Opposition deal

RBC Ukraine - via Wayback Machine:

“The right sector “is dissatisfied with the agreement with Yanukovych”

https://web.archive.org/web/20141006113907/http://euromaidan.rbc.ua/rus/-pravyy-sektor-nazval-soglashenie-s-yanukovichem-ocherednym-21022014160600

Euromaidan Press:

“Parasyuk to run for parliament”

https://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/20/parasyuk-to-run-for-parliament/

(specific section)

https://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/20/parasyuk-to-run-for-parliament/#:~:text=Volodymyr%20Parasyuk%20rose,fled%20from%20Kyiv.

Yanukovych Impeachment and Aid Request

Social Science Research Network - via Wayback Machine:

“The Crimea Crisis – An International Law Perspective”

https://web.archive.org/web/20210925174058/https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2520530 (PDF Page 9)

BBC News (Relevant Stakeholder(s): UK State)

“Ukraine’s Yanukovych asked for troops, Russia tells UN”

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26427848

European Journal of International Law:

“Yanukovych Confirms He Invited Russian Intervention”

https://www.ejiltalk.org/yanukovych-confirms-he-invited-russian-intervention/

AP - via Wayback Machine:

“Ukraine’s Ousted President Hopes for Crimea’s Return”

https://web.archive.org/web/20140410013945/http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/ap-interview-yanukovych-hopes-crimeas-return-23157044?singlePage=true

The Little Green Men

BBC News (Relevant Stakeholder(s): UK State)

““Little green men” or “Russian invaders”?”

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26532154

(relevant section)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26532154#:~:text=Yet%20according%20to%20President%20Vladimir%20Putin%2C%20they%20are%20in%20fact%20members%20of%20%22self%2Ddefence%20groups%22%20organised%20by%20the%20locals%20who%20bought%20all%20their%20uniforms%20and%20hardware%20in%20a%20shop.

Liga.net:

“Putin: Ukrainian troops in Crimea were blocked by Russian troops”

https://news.liga.net/politics/video/putin_ukrainskikh_voennykh_v_krymu_blokirovali_nashi_voennye

(relevant section)

https://news.liga.net/politics/video/putin_ukrainskikh_voennykh_v_krymu_blokirovali_nashi_voennye#:~:text=%D0%94%D0%B0%2C%20%D1%8F%20%D0%BD%D0%B5%20%D1%81%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%8E%2C%20%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%87%D0%BD%D0%BE%2C%20%D1%8D%D1%82%D0%BE%20%D1%84%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%82%2C%20%D0%BC%D1%8B%20%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B4%D0%B0%20%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%BE%20%D0%BD%D0%B5%20%D1%81%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8%2C%20%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%B8%20%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B5%20%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BB%D1%8B%2C%20%D0%BF%D1%80%D1%8F%D0%BC%D0%BE%20%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%BC%2C%20%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8%20%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B6%D1%91%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B5%20%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BB%D1%8B%20%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%8B%2C%20%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B5%20%D0%B2%20%D0%9A%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%BC%D1%83

Crimea Referendum

Question and Results

Wikipedia:

“2014 Crimean status referendum - Official results”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum#Official_results

Kyiv Post:

“Two choices in Crimean referendum: yes and yes”

https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/two-choices-in-crimean-referendum-yes-and-yes-338745.html

Recognition of Results

Wikimedia - by Wikimedia users “Canuckguy” and “Spesh531”:

“Countries recognizing Russian annexation of Crimea”

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Recognition_of_Crimean_Referendum.svg

Licence: CC-BY-SA 3.0

US Agency for Global Media:

“Ukraine political attitudes split, Crimeans turning to Russian sources for news”

https://www.usagm.gov/2014/06/03/ukraine-political-attitudes-split-crimeans-turning-to-russian-sources-for-news/

Bloomberg - via Wayback Machine:

“One Year Later, Crimeans Prefer Russia”

https://web.archive.org/web/20151027034258/http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-06/one-year-later-crimeans-prefer-russia

Euromaidan

Far Right Presence

The Washington Post:

“A ghost of World War II history haunts Ukraine’s standoff with Russia”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/a-ghost-of-world-war-ii-history-haunts-ukraines-standoff-with-russia/2014/03/25/18d4b1e0-a503-4f73-aaa7-5dd5d6a1c665_story.html

BBC News (Relevant Stakeholder(s): UK State)

“Ukraine crisis: Does Russia have a case?”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26415508

(specific section)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26415508#:~:text=The%20far%20right%20was%20a%20minority%20element%20in%20the%20protests%20that%20attracted%20a%20wide%20cross%2Dsection%20of%20support%20from%20Kiev%20and%20other%20cities.%20They%20were%2C%20however%2C%20often%20involved%20in%20the%20most%20violent%20confrontations%20and%20nationalist%20symbols%20were%20frequently%20visible%20in%20the%20square.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26415508#:~:text=The%20nationalist%20Svoboda,group%20Right%20Sector.

The Guardian (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Scott Trust Limited)

“Ukrainian far-right group claims to be co-ordinating violence in Kiev”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/23/ukrainian-far-right-groups-violence-kiev-pravy-sektor

(specific section)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/23/ukrainian-far-right-groups-violence-kiev-pravy-sektor#:~:text=Andriy%20Tarasenko%2C%20one,done%20it%20already.%22

Uprising

Wikipedia:

“2014 Euromaidan regional state administration occupations”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Euromaidan_regional_state_administration_occupations

The Globe and Mail - via Wayback Machine:

https://web.archive.org/web/20140128034508/https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/in-the-hinterland-ukraines-revolution-gains-traction/article16538334/

(specific sections)

https://web.archive.org/web/20140128034508/https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/in-the-hinterland-ukraines-revolution-gains-traction/article16538334/#:~:text=In%20the%20last%20week%2C%2010%20of%20the%20country%E2%80%99s%2027%20regional%20governments%20have%20been%20overturned

https://web.archive.org/web/20140128034508/https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/in-the-hinterland-ukraines-revolution-gains-traction/article16538334/#:~:text=Now%20they%20are,the%20new%20council.

International Business Times:

“Ukraine Facing Civil War: Lviv Declares Independence from Yanukovich Rule”

https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraine-facing-civil-war-lviv-declares-independence-yanukovich-rule-1437092

UNIAN:

“The People’s Council of the Troia Oblast banned PR and the Communist Party of Ukraine”

https://www.unian.ua/kyiv/880167-narodna-rada-troeschini-zaboronila-pr-i-kpu.html

Wikimedia - by Wikimedia user “Lvivske”:

“Euromaidan RSA occupations”

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Euromaidan_RSA_occupations.png

Licence: CC-BY-SA 3.0

New Government

GeoPolitical Forecasts:

“Yanukovych’s removal was unconstitutional”

https://gpforecasts.wordpress.com/2014/02/28/yanukovychs-removal-was-unconstitutional/

Kyiv Post:

“Rada dismisses Constitutional Court judges appointed from its quota”

https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/rada-dismisses-constitutional-court-judges-appointed-from-its-quota-337523.html

Anti Maidan Uprising

Wikimedia - by Wikimedia user “RGloucester”:

“2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine”

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine.svg

Licence: CC-BY-SA 3.0

Kyiv Post:

“Kharkiv settles down, while pro-Russian separatists still hold buildings in Luhansk, Donetsk”

https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/war-against-ukraine/kharkiv-settles-down-while-pro-russian-separatists-still-hold-buildings-in-luhansk-donetsk-342517.html

(specific section)

https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/war-against-ukraine/kharkiv-settles-down-while-pro-russian-separatists-still-hold-buildings-in-luhansk-donetsk-342517.html#:~:text=Early%20this%20morning%2C%20Ukrainian%20police%20stormed%20Kharkiv%20Oblast%27s%20government%20center%20and%20retook%20control%20of%20the%20building%20from%20pro%2DRussian%20separatists%20that%20were%20holding%20it.%20About%2070%20suspects%20in%20the%20takeover%20were%20arrested.

Extremists in Volunteer Battalions

Science Norway:

“This is where Neo-Nazi foreign fighters fought alongside communists”

https://sciencenorway.no/conflict-foreign-fighters-terrorism/this-is-where-neo-nazi-foreign-fighters-fought-alongside-communists/1853856

Views on the Maidan

Ukrainian Policy - via Wayback Machine:

“Southeast Statistics”

https://web.archive.org/web/20140421051026/http://ukrainianpolicy.com/southeast-statistics-of-ukraine-april-2014/

(specific sections)

https://web.archive.org/web/20140421051026/http://ukrainianpolicy.com/southeast-statistics-of-ukraine-april-2014/#:~:text=In%20the%20entire,and%20Mykolaiv%20(55.1%25).

https://web.archive.org/web/20140421051026/http://ukrainianpolicy.com/southeast-statistics-of-ukraine-april-2014/#:~:text=46%25%20of%20those,view%20via%20majority.

https://web.archive.org/web/20140421051026/http://ukrainianpolicy.com/southeast-statistics-of-ukraine-april-2014/#:~:text=46%25%20feel%20that,would%20not%20occur)

Combat Readiness of Ukrainian forces, emergence of “volunteers”

IAI:

“Heroes or Villains? Volunteer Battalions in Post-Maidan Ukraine”

https://www.academia.edu/11479414/Heroes_or_Villains_Volunteer_Battalions_in_Post_Maidan_Ukraine

Maidan groups refusal to disarm

France24 (Relevant Stakeholder(s): French State):

“Kiev’s far-right groups refuse to disarm”

https://www.france24.com/en/20140403-video-kiev-far-right-groups-refuse-stand-down-ukraine-maidan-russia

(relevant section)

https://www.france24.com/en/20140403-video-kiev-far-right-groups-refuse-stand-down-ukraine-maidan-russia#:~:text=%E2%80%9CWe%20don%E2%80%99t%20trust,system%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20said.

Russian recognition of elected government

The Moscow Times (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Sanoma Corporation)

“Russia to Recognize Ukraine Election Results, Says Lavrov”

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2014/10/27/russia-to-recognize-ukraine-election-results-says-lavrov-a40785

Maidan Aftermath

The Minsk Agreements - Text

OSCE:

Minsk 1 (in Russian)

https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/a/a/123258.pdf

Minsk 2 (in Russian)

https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/5/b/140221.pdf

Wikipedia:

Minsk 1 (translated to English)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements#Minsk_Protocol

Minsk 2 (translated to English)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements#Minsk_II,_February_2015

Minsk parties ignore their own agreement

Kyiv Post:

“Quieter, but guns of war still not silent, on first day of cease-fire in Donetsk”

https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/war-against-ukraine/quieter-but-guns-of-war-still-not-silent-on-first-day-of-cease-fire-in-donetsk-380736.html

(relevant section)

https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/war-against-ukraine/quieter-but-guns-of-war-still-not-silent-on-first-day-of-cease-fire-in-donetsk-380736.html#:~:text=Zakharchenko%2C%20the%20separatist,by%20separatist%20forces.

Euromaidan Press:

“Dmytro Yarosh: ‘Right Sector’ to fight until complete liberation of Ukraine from Russian occupants”

https://euromaidanpress.com/2015/02/14/dmytro-yarosh-right-sector-fight-complete-liberation-ukraine-russian-occupants/#comment-21371

(relevant section)

https://euromaidanpress.com/2015/02/14/dmytro-yarosh-right-sector-fight-complete-liberation-ukraine-russian-occupants/#comment-21371:~:text=The%20Right%20Sector,Yarosh%20points%20out.

NATO Trainers in Ukraine

Voice of America (Relevant Stakeholder(s): US State):

“US Forces Launch Ukraine Military Training”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPmIWTZJrnY

Zelensky’s Russia Approach

Pravda Ukraine:

“Zelenskyi on the war in Donbas: Although he is ready to negotiate with the bald devil”

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2018/12/26/7202291/

Atlantic Council:

“Russia as aggressor, NATO as objective: Ukraine’s new National Security Strategy”

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russia-as-aggressor-nato-as-objective-ukraines-new-national-security-strategy/

Chapter 2. Catchup

Russian military’s “end of Phase One”

CGTN (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Chinese State):

“Russia says main tasks of first stage of ‘special military operation’ achieved”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_agGQ9U97PA

CNN:

“Russia says first phase of war is over as its advances in Ukraine appear to have stalled”

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/25/europe/russian-general-calls-encirclement-of-ukrainian-cities-a-deliberate-plan/index.html

(specific quote)

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/25/europe/russian-general-calls-encirclement-of-ukrainian-cities-a-deliberate-plan/index.html#:~:text=%E2%80%9CIn%20general%2C%20the,liberation%20of%20Donbas.%E2%80%9D

Referendum plans in Eastern Ukraine

Yahoo:

“Russia wants to annex Kharkiv Oblast, unveils flag for region with imperial symbols – ISW”

https://www.yahoo.com/video/russia-wants-annex-kharkiv-oblast-082800632.html

Zona Media:

“Russian-appointed authorities of Zaporizhia region announced a referendum on “reunification””

https://zona.media/article/2022/08/08/svodka-166

(specific section)

https://zona.media/article/2022/08/08/svodka-166#:~:text=Russian%2Dappointed%20authorities%20of%20Zaporizhia%20region%20announced%20a%20referendum%20on%20%22reunification%22

Caspian News:

“Kremlin Reveals Plans to Hold Referendum on Joining Russia in Kherson”

https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/kremlin-reveals-plans-to-hold-referendum-on-joining-russia-in-kherson-2022-6-9-58/

TASS (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Russian State):

“The referendum on the entry of the DPR into Russia will be held from 23 to 27 September”

https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/15808407

Times of Israel:

“Leader of east Ukraine separatist region says it may hold vote on joining Russia”

https://www.timesofisrael.com/leader-of-east-ukraine-separatist-region-says-it-may-hold-vote-on-joining-russia/

Russification in Eastern Ukraine

TASS (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Russian State):

“About 500 in Kharkov Region get Russian passports — local official”

https://tass.com/world/1509303

Ruptly TV (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Russian State):

“Ukraine: Melitopol residents queue for Russian SIM-cards”

https://www.ruptly.tv/en/videos/20220529-020-Ukraine-Melitopol-residents-queue-for-Russian-SIM-cards-

RIA (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Russian State):

“Kherson region moves to the ruble zone”

https://ria.ru/20220428/rubl-1785852369.html

Views on NATO

Statista:

“Survey on perception of NATO membership in Sweden 2014-2022”

https://www.statista.com/statistics/660842/survey-on-perception-of-nato-membership-in-sweden/

Business Insider:

“Finland’s people now strongly back joining NATO, poll says, a massive political shift that would enrage Russia”

https://www.businessinsider.com/finland-majority-support-joining-nato-after-russia-invades-ukraine-survey-2022-3

The National Interest:

“NATO is Obsolete”

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/nato-obsolete-25167

Ukrainian Counter Offensive in Kharkiv

BBC News (Relevant Stakeholder(s): UK State)

“Ukraine war: Russians ‘outnumbered 8-1’ in counter-attack”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62874557

Russian Defence Ministry:

“Statement by the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense”

https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12437675@egNews

(specific quote)

https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12437675@egNews#:~:text=In%20order%20to,Donetsk%20People%27s%20Republic.

Escalations after Ukrainian counteroffensive

Pro-Russian Referendums

TASS (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Russian State):

“DPR, LPR, liberated zone of Zaporozhye, Kherson Regions embark on referendum vote”

https://tass.com/politics/1512233

“How DPR, LPR, Kherson, Zaporozhye voted for joining Russia”

https://tass.com/politics/1514667

(specific quotes)

Donetsk:

https://tass.com/politics/1514667#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20DPR%E2%80%99s%20CEC%2C%20after%20the%20processing%20100%25%20of%20the%20election%20commissions%E2%80%99%20reports%2C%20in%20the%20DPR%20the%20idea%20of%20joining%20Russia%20was%20supported%20by%2099.23%25%20of%20those%20who%20voted%20in%20the%20referendum.%20The%20turnout%20was%2097.51%25%20(2%2C131%2C207).

Luhansk:

https://tass.com/politics/1514667#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20LPR%E2%80%99s%20CEC%2C%20after%20the%20processing%20100%25%20of%20the%20election%20commissions%E2%80%99%20reports%2C%20in%20the%20LPR%2098.42%25%20of%20those%20who%20took%20part%20in%20the%20referendum%20voted%20for%20joining%20Russia.%20The%20turnout%20was%2094.15%25%20(1%2C662%2C607).

Zaporizhzhia:

https://tass.com/politics/1514667#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20regional%20election%20commission%2C%20after%20the%20processing%20100%25%20of%20the%20election%20commissions%E2%80%99%20reports%2C%2093.11%25%20(430%2C268)%20of%20the%20referendum%20participants%20in%20the%20liberated%20territory%20of%20the%20Zaporozhye%20Region%20voted%20for%20joining%20Russia.%20The%20turnout%20was%2085.4%25%20(541%2C093).

Kherson:

https://tass.com/politics/1514667#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20regional%20election%20commission%2C%20after%20the%20processing%20100%25%20of%20the%20election%20commissions%E2%80%99%20reports%2C%20in%20the%20Kherson%20Region%2087.05%25%20of%20those%20who%20took%20part%20in%20the%20referendum%20(497%2C051)%20were%20in%20favor%20of%20joining%20Russia.%20The%20turnout%20was%2078.86%25%20(571%2C001).

Unification of Eastern Ukraine with Russia

TASS (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Russian State):

“Treaties on accession of Donbass and other liberated territories to Russia signed”

https://tass.com/politics/1516023

Russian Mobilisation

TASS (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Russian State):

“Partial mobilization in Russia to begin today”

https://tass.com/politics/1511097

Associated Press:

“Reservists’ mobilization continues in Russia”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GQ3-Z1l4dQ

“Russians flee, protest as mobilization announced”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ImK-4YjgmQ

DW (Relevant Stakeholder(s): German State):

“Russia’s partial mobilization: Conscripts report call-up chaos”

https://www.dw.com/en/russias-partial-mobilization-conscripts-report-call-up-chaos/a-63301779

(specific quote)

https://www.dw.com/en/russias-partial-mobilization-conscripts-report-call-up-chaos/a-63301779#:~:text=%22As%20far%20as%20I%20understand%20they%20have%20enough%20people%2C%20there%20were%20long%20lines%20outside%20the%20recruitment%20office%2C%22

Exodus from Russia

Finnish Border Guard:

“Traffic at Finland’s eastern border has remained busy since last Wednesday.”

https://twitter.com/rajavartijat/status/1574376900256055296

Daily Mail:

“Russians continue to stream across the border into Georgia”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11267207/Russians-continue-stream-border-Georgia-fearing-Putins-mobilisation.html

(specific quote)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11267207/Russians-continue-stream-border-Georgia-fearing-Putins-mobilisation.html#:~:text=Russian%20authorities%20acknowledged%20a%20%27significant%27%20influx%20of%20cars%20trying%20to%20cross%20from%20Russia%20into%20Georgia%2C%20with%20one%20official%20saying%20there%20is%20%27significant%20congestion%20of%20private%20vehicles…%20around%202%2C300%27.

France24 (Relevant Stakeholder(s): French State):

“‘I don’t want to die’: Exodus from Russia after Putin’s call-up for Ukraine war”

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220922-i-don-t-want-to-die-exodus-from-russia-after-putin-s-call-up-for-ukraine-war

Lentaru:

“tickets for direct flights to Istanbul and Yerevan were sold out”

https://twitter.com/lentaruofficial/status/1572492156790620160

Forbes RU:

“About 700,000 citizens left Russia after September 21”

https://www.forbes.ru/society/478827-rossiu-posle-21-sentabra-pokinuli-okolo-700-000-grazdan

(relevant section)

https://www.forbes.ru/society/478827-rossiu-posle-21-sentabra-pokinuli-okolo-700-000-grazdan#:~:text=Almost%201%20million%20people%20have%20left%20Russia%20since%20the%20start%20of%20mobilization%2C%20a%20source%20familiar%20with%20the%20Kremlin%27s%20estimates%20told%20Forbes.%20Another%20interlocutor%20in%20the%20Presidential%20Administration%20clarified%20that%20we%20are%20talking%20about%20600%2C000%20%2D%20700%2C000%20Russians.

Yahoo:

“Mobilisation in Russia: more than 200,000 Russians flee to Kazakhstan”

https://news.yahoo.com/mobilisation-russia-more-200-000-072332882.html

Attacks on Recruitment Offices

Daily Mail:

“Man sets fire to Uryupinsk office amid military enlistment”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xks_SDnEUoM

News AU:

“Military recruitment office set on fire near Moscow”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saDTW-1_IOI

The Telegraph:

“Russian military recruitment centres targeted with Molotov cocktails in spate of activist attacks”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htDukC2t0F0

Drafting Criteria

Sky News Australia (Relevant Stakeholder(s): News Corp):

“Kremlin acknowledges partial mobilisation is not going according to Putin’s plan”

https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/kremlin-acknowledges-partial-mobilisation-is-not-going-according-to-putins-plan-as-russia-scrambles-to-find-soldiers-to-fight/news-story/150db60de797fed4f90bd1143044b7b8

(relevant sections)

“Reservists and Veterans Only”

https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/kremlin-acknowledges-partial-mobilisation-is-not-going-according-to-putins-plan-as-russia-scrambles-to-find-soldiers-to-fight/news-story/150db60de797fed4f90bd1143044b7b8#:~:text=%22We%20are%20talking%20about%20partial%20mobilisation%2C%20that%20is%2C%20only%20citizens%20who%20are%20currently%20in%20the%20reserve%20will%20be%20subject%20to%20conscription%2C%20and%20above%20all%2C%20those%20who%20served%20in%20the%20armed%20forces%20and%20have%20a%20certain%20military%20specialty%20and%20relevant%20experience%2C%22

Elderly and disabled being called up

https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/kremlin-acknowledges-partial-mobilisation-is-not-going-according-to-putins-plan-as-russia-scrambles-to-find-soldiers-to-fight/news-story/150db60de797fed4f90bd1143044b7b8#:~:text=However%2C%20since%20the%20address%20reports%20have%20surfaced%20that%20Russians%20who%20too%20old%20or%20even%20disabled%20%2D%20and%20clearly%20unfit%20for%20service%20%2D%20are%20being%20called%20up%20in%20a%20chaotic%20scramble%20to%20recruit%20forces.

Protest Consequences

Reuters (Relevant Stakeholder(s): The Woodbridge Company):

“Russia fights back in information war with jail warning”

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-introduce-jail-terms-spreading-fake-information-about-army-2022-03-04/

Official Criticism

Russia Today (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Russian State) - via Wayback Machine:

“Top Russian MP blasts Defense Ministry over Ukraine”

(link removed from public sources due to eu regulations blocking reproduction of rt content)

(specific sections)

(link removed from public sources due to eu regulations blocking reproduction of rt content)

(link removed from public sources due to eu regulations blocking reproduction of rt content)

Frozen Conflict

BBC News (Relevant Stakeholder(s): UK State)

“Ukraine fighting is deadlocked, spy chief Kyrylo Budanov tells BBC”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64109024

Ukrainian recovered territory

Statista:

“Liberated Ukrainian Territory”

https://www.statista.com/chart/28748/ukraine-territory-control-status-distribution/

(Article based on data from the Institute for the Study of War:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-13)

The Wagner Mutiny

Background

Russian Criminal Code - via Wayback Machine:

“Chapter 34. Crimes Against Peace and Mankind’s Security”

https://web.archive.org/web/20180220233619/http://www.russian-criminal-code.com/PartII/SectionXII/Chapter34.html

(specific section)

https://web.archive.org/web/20180220233619/http://www.russian-criminal-code.com/PartII/SectionXII/Chapter34.html#:~:text=Article%20359.%20Mercenarism,fulfilling%20official%20duties.

Reuters (Relevant Stakeholder(s): The Woodbridge Company):

“Russia’s Prigozhin admits link to Wagner mercenaries for first time”

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-prigozhin-admits-link-wagner-mercenaries-first-time-2022-09-26/

The Times:

“Wagner Group sends EU Parliament a message with ‘bloodied’ hammer”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/wagner-group-sends-eu-parliament-a-message-with-bloodied-hammer-kr6tfr7vc

Meduza:

“Prigozhin’s criminal past, straight from the source A complete translation of one of the court documents from the case that sent ‘Putin’s chef’ to prison, four decades ago”

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2021/06/29/prigozhin-s-criminal-past-straight-from-the-source

BBC News (Relevant Stakeholder(s): UK State):

“Wagner Group: Head of Russian mercenary group filmed recruiting in prison”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62911618

(specific section)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62911618#:~:text=While%20Russian%20law,will%20execute%20you%22.

“Ukraine war: Wagner detains Russian officer over ‘drunk’ attack”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65809844

“Ukraine war: Russia moves to take direct control of Wagner Group”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65871232

Kyiv Independent:

“Prigozhin accuses Russian Defense Ministry of placing mines along Wagner exit routes from Bakhmut”

https://kyivindependent.com/prigozhin-says-russian-defense-ministry-laid-mines/

The Guardian (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Scott Trust Limited):

“Wagner chief accuses Moscow of lying to public about Ukraine”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/wagner-chief-accuses-moscow-of-lying-to-public-about-ukraine-yevgeny-prigozhin

Beginning of Wagner’s Mutiny

TASS (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Russian State) - via Wayback Machine:

“Criminal case opened against Wagner head amid threat of escalating confrontation — FSB”

https://web.archive.org/web/20230623233418/https://tass.com/russia/1637455

TASS (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Russian State):

“Russian security service starts mutiny probe after statements by Prigozhin — committee”

https://tass.com/russia/1637425

“Checkpoints established near Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov-on-Don”

https://tass.com/russia/1637457

“Car traffic on M-4 highway in Rostov Region blocked, cars being turned back”

https://tass.com/russia/1637463

OSINTdefender - via Twitter:

“These do appear to be Elements of the Wagner Group outside of the Southern Military District Headquarters”

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1672429891499749376

Intel Slava Z - via Telegram:

“The network has footage of the arrival of Wagner PMC at the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov”

https://t.me/intelslava/49174

Mutiny halfway point

Military Informant - via Telegram:

“Column of the Wagner PMC in the Voronezh region.”

https://t.me/milinfolive/102560

Kremlin:

“Address to citizens of Russia”

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71496

War Monitor - via Twitter:

“A column of armored personnel carriers BTR-82A of the Chechen “Akhmat” near Rostov.”

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1672597743410225152

“Photos of the Wagner convoy that’s heading in the direction of Moscow currently in Lipetsk”

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1672577758663172098

“Convoy of Wagner PMC is traveling through the Lipetsk region on their way to Moscow.”

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1672599456410136577

“Defensive positions being set up in Moscow according to local newspapers”

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1672578596471296007

“VK (Russian social media) blocked the Wagner PMC group at the request of the Prosecutor General’s Office of the Russian Federation”

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1672584277702131713

Meduza:

“In the Lipetsk region, where the mercenaries of the Wagner ChVK are located, excavators dug up the highway”

https://meduza.io/news/2023/06/24/v-lipetskoy-oblasti-gde-nahodyatsya-naemniki-chvk-vagnera-ekskavatory-perekopali-shosse

OSINTdefender - via Twitter:

“A Column of the 141st Special Motorized Regiment also know as the “Kadyrovites” which were Ordered by the Head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov to Deploy to the Rostov Region against Wagner PMC Forces appeared to have gotten Stuck in Traffic earlier today.”

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1672682797536800770

Visegrád 24 - via Twitter:

“The Wagner Group has now reached the Lipetsk region. Moscow is only 4 hours away by car. The Battle of Moscow could start this evening.”

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672584398774960128

“BREAKING: The first Wagner units have reached the Moscow region”

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672635807516041219

“BREAKING: Some Russian units are pulling out of Ukraine and are returning to Russia in an effort to stop the advance of the Wagner Group”

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672638686943428608

Intel Slava Z - via Telegram:

“Most of the sites of information publications of the Patriot media group have been blocked.”

https://t.me/intelslava/49321

Zlatti71 - via Twitter:

“Marines of the 155th brigade of the Pacific Fleet declared their loyalty to the oath and support of President Putin”

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1672638644136427522

End of the Mutiny

teleSUR English (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Venezuelan State):

“Lukashenko Strikes Deal With Wagner Group, Prigozhin Retreats”

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Lukashenko-Strikes-Deal-With-Wagner-Group-Prigozhin-Retreats-20230624-0003.html

War Monitor - via Twitter:

“Situation in Rostov, hugs and farewells”

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1672677069539483648

“Wagner in Rostov: “Boys, let’s load up, let’s go home!””

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1672669508316585984

“Military police vehicles appeared near the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov, RIA Novosti correspondent reports.”

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1672679835548676096

Institute for the Study of War:

“RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JUNE 24, 2023”

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24-2023

(specific section)

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24-2023#:~:text=Geolocated%20footage%20posted%20in,claims%20they%20reached%20Kashira.

Aftermath

TASS (Relevant Stakeholder(s): Russian State):

“Putin congratulates Wagner assault teams with liberation of Artyomovsk — Kremlin”

https://tass.com/defense/1620655

War Monitor - via Twitter:

“Russian state TV is now doubting the effectiveness of Wagner which took much longer to “liberate a less important Bakhmut” in comparison to Mariupol”. Hilarious.”

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1675058889249681409

Possibilities

Business Insider:

“Only 0.2% of Ukraine’s landmass has changed hands in 2023, report says, despite thousands dead and billions of dollars spent”

https://www.businessinsider.com/little-ukraine-landmass-changed-hands-in-2023-despite-losses-report-2023-9

DW (Relevant Stakeholder(s): German State):

“Ukraine’s counteroffensive: Goals, opportunities, risks”

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraines-counteroffensive-goals-opportunities-risks/a-65467835

(specific sections)

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraines-counteroffensive-goals-opportunities-risks/a-65467835#:~:text=Others%20believe%20the%20main%20thrust%20will%20be%20directed%20towards%20the%20Zaporizhzhia%20region%20in%20southern%20Ukraine.%20From%20there%2C%20Ukrainian%20forces%20are%20expected%20to%20push%20towards%20the%20Crimean%20peninsula%20to%20cut%20Russian%20troops%20off%20from%20overland%20supply%20routes.

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraines-counteroffensive-goals-opportunities-risks/a-65467835#:~:text=One%20strategically%20crucial%20target%20Zaluzhnyi%20mentioned%20was%20the%20Crimean%20peninsula%2C%20which%20Russia%20illegally%20annexed%20in%202014.%20In%20Kyiv%2C%20all%20agree%20this%20is%20the%20main%20direction%20Ukraine%20should%20focus%20its%20efforts.

Statista:

“Total bilateral aid commitments to Ukraine between January 24, 2022 and May 31, 2023, by type and country or organization”

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/

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