Previous Subchapter → 10.4o What can be done - A Fourth Possibility
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There are 3 main possible outcomes from this war
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Ukrainian victory (regaining all territory lost since 2014)
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Russian victory (holding on to the 4 annexed regions)
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Frozen conflict (territory split between Russia and Ukraine, no resolution to the issue)
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Our ideal would be a fourth, more idealistic solution, which would be to give people of the disputed regions a free, fair referendum to settle the territory issue for good, but this is unlikely unless the war continues in a stalemate for a long period
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Which of these is most likely depends in the ability of both sides to continue the war
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Russian ability to continue will be impacted by support for war among the Russian public
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Ukrainian ability to continue will be impacted by support from Western allies, especially the US
- Whether this support continues depends on the US elections in 2024, which will decide if the Democrats (who support aid to Ukraine) or the Republicans (who are against aid to Ukraine) win the Presidency
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Whichever side fails to achieve its goals in the war will end up facing instability internally