Previous Subchapter → 10.3o The Geopolitics
But outside of the global stage there’s a more urgent topic, the issues of the local people caught up in these conflicts, while the global shifts resulting from this conflict will have an indirect impact on lives around the world, the more pressing issue is the directly affected lives of those still living in these disputed regions, who have suffered not just through physical war wounds, but mental wounds too, an exacerbated identity crisis, trauma, families and friends being torn apart, how can these war ravaged populations be returned to any sense of normalcy?
Because we’ve talked about all the causes, the issues, the narratives and the nuances of this war, and that was important to do, so people can understand how this conflict happened and how media is manipulating it, giving people the chance to process all the propaganda that’s been bombarded through their screens, but ultimately the key issue here is creating a lasting peace, where people have the freedom to choose and to heal.
How do you take these people with bitterly divided worldviews, who’ve faced linguistic, cultural and physical turmoil, and bring them to a state of reconciliation?
Due to the radically opposing endgames the 2 parties in the conflict have, the prospect for reconciliation right now looks bleak, but does that mean that a way out isn’t possible? Not necessarily, there are ways that this identity crisis could be resolved in a more orderly way, if the will for it existed. Referendums related to these disputed territories were held before, but they were useless for determining the views of their populations, in Crimea the referendum didn’t have a serious “no” option, and the later referendums didn’t even take place in much of the territories they were supposedly deciding for.
Status referendums could be held again, but this time by a neutral party with observers from both sides of the divide, in every area of the regions they would decide for. A simple choice could be offered to Crimea, Donbas and other disputed territories: Accept the past declarations of Russian annexation, or return to the status that existed before them as part of Ukraine.
This way the people of these regions, which have been in limbo for almost a decade now, could finally decide what state they want to be part of rather than having paramilitaries and politicians with shifting loyalties choose for them, because while it’s often easy to push someone to be complacent or feign loyalty, it isn’t so easy to force them to change their values, their identity, their culture or their nationality, war can’t resolve these differences on its own, maybe a vote could, on some level.
And at the end of the day, even if Russia or Ukraine were to achieve total victory and swallow up these territories, the divisions will continue to exist, this is not an issue that can be put to rest by conquest, no one has a right to redraw these borders without cast iron proof they have the will of those inside those borders on their side, the idea of territorial integrity can’t answer the questions of lands like Donbas, but the idea of self determination could; Both the Ukrainians and Russians, at least as they say publicly, are confident that the people of these disputed areas want to be with them, so what do they have to fear from a border poll?
But it’s one thing to propose peace and another to make it possible, lasting diplomacy requires trust, and Russia and Ukraine don’t have any of that, after exploiting Ukraine’s constitutional crisis to grab territory and piggybacking off of the separatists to grab more, Russian leaders will be finding trust in short supply if they want to talk to the Ukrainians, likewise Ukraine’s ability to form a lasting solution to this issue with Russia is impaired by the pressure of factions like Right Sector, who have a track record of scuppering past peace agreements when they feel they aren’t getting their way: The settlement with Yanukovytch, Minsk, Minsk 2 and so on.
And as things stand both camps have reasons to believe they don’t need to negotiate: The Ukrainians have been bolstered by sweeping counter offensives, but the Russians still hold sizeable portions of territory in their annexed regions, each side believes they can wear the other down and achieve their goals, if they’re proved to be wrong and a stalemate sets in an eventual diplomatic solution could seem more plausible, but that’s a big if, whether it happens in the end remains to be seen.