Previous Subchapter → Chapter 2 Summary
Since the events of the mutiny, the overall battlefield has barely changed, despite many battles and lives lost.
Both sides have little to show for their roles in the conflict in 2023, Ukraine’s ambitions of driving the Russians into the Sea of Azov, retaking their lost southern lands and preparing for a march on Crimea, have fallen far short.
But in return, Russia’s goal of strangling Ukrainians into submission, forcing them to recognise the theft of territory they call home, has also failed, the result is a bleak future where no one knows how far off the horizon peace may be, when the bombs will stop falling, when loved ones will stop being called to sacrifice.
In this state, it seems the most likely outcome of the war will be a frozen conflict, the battle lines will stabilise, the shooting will stop or at least lessen, but no agreements or surrenders will be signed, just a limbo where neither force can dislodge the other, an uneasy peace with no true resolution.
But both combatants are playing the long game, believing that at some point there will be another curveball event:
Russia hopes that the political will of Ukraine’s allies in Europe and the US will falter, causing the weapons supplies to run out and the road to securing their occupation to open.
Ukraine is hoping that before that could happen, Russians will realise how much they are wasting dying for shattered colonies and turn on the leaders sending them to the front.
These curveballs are possible, the Wagner Mutiny paralysed and almost toppled the stability of the Kremlin, with Prigozhin and his grunts showing the depth of the discontent some of Russia’s warriors have for their commanding officers; While in the US, there is a serious prospect of a former President sympathetic to the Kremlin returning to power, cutting Ukraine off from its strongest supporter and forcing Europeans to choose whether or not to take up the lead and sacrifice more to fuel Ukraine’s cause, or give way to a resurgent Russia.
In the end the question is simple, will either side break? And if so, who breaks first?
This war has seen the emergence, or resurgence, of many competing national ideas, which are not only territorial, but ideological; The state of the war, either stagnation or destruction, will decide whose ideas will shape the future of Ukraine, Russia, and maybe other nations too, how these countries navigate their challenges could define our future.
With so many unknowns, we can’t tell you what the answer to these questions will be, or which of these ideas will triumph, we are not military experts, only writers and researchers with a keen eye for dissecting narratives, so we can only wait and see what the future holds, but we’ll do our best to inform, and promote truth as best we see it over simplistic, romantic or malicious propaganda lines. Just be warned; It will get messy.
Until next time, thank you for reading MEGA.