Previous Subchapter → 2.0 Since the Last Report
The Russian military retreated from their positions near Kyiv and its surrounding regions and claimed that their “first phase” was complete, stating that they were moving their aims towards the “second phase”, Russia’s ambitions had seemingly shrunk dramatically as they went from planning to dominate a whole country, to capturing only a small corner of it.
The question is, why?
It’s all a case of expectations versus results, the Russian military intended to sweep through Ukraine and silence its forces in a matter of days, a pushover battle where they expected to be welcomed by the people they were conquering, a misleading attitude not unlike the one held by US troops as they invaded Iraq 20 years ago.
But while the US tried to maintain their presence and turn the tide for years, the Russians chose to cut their losses and leave, realising that there would be no fall of Kyiv, no wave of Ukrainian soldiers responding to Putin’s call by switching sides and no throngs of Ukrainians leaping into Russia’s embrace.
On the other hand, the Russian forces believed that the Donbas was a better point to hold their ground as it was a region where, unlike the rest of Ukraine, the feeling of Russian identity and sympathy for pro-Russian separatism was more widespread. While Zelensky tried to encourage Russia to give up on this plan and cut a deal for peace by conceding that Ukraine wouldn’t be able to join NATO a month after the invasion began, things were too late by then and the Russians stuck to their plans.
They also expanded the scope of their “Phase 2” goals to include 3 more regions of Ukraine, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the idea being that having Eastern regions of Ukraine under Russian control would create a buffer between Russia and Ukraine and create a Russian occupied “land bridge” to Crimea, the end goal was to hold referendums in the regions on joining Russia, ensuring their status as Russian enclaves.