Previous Subchapter → 10.1o Possible Scenarios
Well, for both sides in the conflict this is, in a way, an existential war for survival:
Having to give up Russia’s “new lands” and capitulate to Ukraine would likely destroy the Russian government’s credibility with its own people after so many lives are lost, it would be very hard for the Russian leadership to sell a non advantageous end of the war to its people given their previous rhetoric comparing it to the battle for survival against the Nazis in World War 2.
The strife resulting from a withdrawal would validate the dissent of anti war protesters, and pro war supporters would likely join this dissent as well in their own way, feeling their government failed them, the turmoil could potentially topple the Russian leadership, or even the whole system of the Russian Federation entirely.
Similarly, Zelensky ending the war without recovering lost territories could potentially shatter his Churchillian war hero image and leave him open to claims of betrayal, especially from ultranationalist figures, long term rivals of the state from Volunteer Battalion figures like Right Sector, putting the stability of Ukraine at risk.
Regardless of who comes out on top from this conflict, there will be a dramatic effect on world politics, it all depends on the precedent Russia wants to set, that it has a right to a sphere of influence in the Post-Soviet space free of Westernisation or rival alliances like NATO, returning the world to something like the days of the first Cold War, an Eastern and Western Bloc set in stone all over again.
Ukraine being defeated, having to accept Russian annexation on Russian terms, would leave Russia’s precedent set, a Russian defeat would leave this precedent shattered.